ECONOMISTS: U.S. OUT OF RECESSION BUT MASS. STILL IN IT

According to analyses presented Tuesday at the New England Economic Partnership’s Fall Economic Outlook Conference at the Federal U.S. economic conditions still dominate New England’s outlook, where a slow and weak recovery is expected.

In a news summary of the conference supplied by the State House news service and complemented with infomation from Moody’s Economy.com service, it was noted that the recession ended in August but strong economic growth is still some years away. Other highlights include:

• Job losses, which will be worst in manufacturing and construction, will peak in 3rd quarter of 2010, escalating to 9.6%. Job loss will be least in health and education. This according to analyses by the New England Economic Partnership (NEEP).
• Massachusetts is still in a recession though the nation is not. “We entered this recession three or four months later than the U.S., and we will exit it three or four months later than the U.S.” said Alan Clayton Matthews, a member of the NEEP board of directors.
• Two percent growth is expected in 2010, followed by 3 percent growth in 2011 and 5 percent growth — and self-sustaining economic expansion — by 2012, Augustine Faucet, director of macroeconomics for Moody’s Economy, said.
• Employment decline is expected to continue for an additional 12 to 15 months, and the region will lose about 400,000 jobs to the recession by the time it ends. NEEP estimates that nearly 350,000 of the jobs the region will lose in the recession have already been lost, and employment growth should return at the end of 2010 or the beginning of 2011.
• “Commercial real estate has yet to bottom out and problems in commercial real estate will negatively affect the banking sector and financing in the region.  Also, household wealth and consumer confidence have had significant setbacks since the start of the recession, and it will take a long period of time for consumer spending and the housing market in the region to recover,” he said. “These factors will contribute to slow recovery in the region.”